The Future of Music: Moses Supposes

...The Music Biz: inside info, outside the box

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WHAT A DECADE: Looking Back Ten Years. Are We Up Or Are We Down?

Monday, January 4th, 2010

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“We have a serious problem with the industry… the CD business could be destroyed entirely in three years by the availability of free music on the Internet.” –Miles Copeland in a 2001 Interview.

In 2000 it seemed like the music business was about to end. Spin magazine was shutting its doors, MTV began its ten-year retreat into irrelevance by closing The Box, labels were losing massive market share to home video games and artists were making pennies on the dollar of what they were supposed to be making. And then, in 2001 the Napster war exploded.

But even though there are many who like to purport that the music business is still in a downward spiral (mostly those who favor tech companies) these claims defy all logic. ASCAP/BMI have reported record earnings for the past three years and music sales in general are up. This, in spite of music “futurist,” Gerd Leonhard who said in 2002, “The performing rights organizations as we know them, will vanish.”

Really?

CD sales are sliding and are destined to become the new vinyl, as a vinyl resurgence makes the old 12″ the new LaserDisc. This is in contrast to the “futurists’” who in 2002 stated emphatically that the pricing scheme of music-buying will be shelved before 2007 and that “CD prices will end up at around $5 USD per unit.”

Really?

Last I checked we still managed to sell more than 300 million of those silver roof-shingles in 2009 for about the same price they were in 2000. Most were also bought them the same way we’ve been buying music for fifty years— in record stores.

All RIAA data seems to suggest that physical music sales are down 30%– if you start counting in 2005. But if we wind the clock back ten years, instead of five, CD Albums look bleak but overall music sales are pretty much where they were a decade ago despite how tech-biased web-zines like to skew the numbers,  This might sound like bad news if you worship the concept of “expansion,” until you remember that industries, like finance, automobile manufacturing, the stock market and other US staples have seen a sharp decline since 2000, due largely to the fall of the past two years.

By comparison, the music biz is holding its own and all this while dealing with rampant piracy, rapidly evolving technology that is too fast to legislate, no government bail-out, and technocrats who hurt the music business with dumb statements like, “Mechanical royalties as we know them [in 2002] will cease to exist within 15 years.” (Yes, he really said that.) And these two gems which could not have turned out to be less true when predicted by “futurists” in 2002 yet were hailed as “forward thinking” by organizations like the EFF, The Future of Music Coalition, and some very pessimistic music business professors:

1) “The lifetime of copyright will be cut back to 15-25 years, to reflect the fast pace of innovation and cultural development.”

(Copyright was extended to 95 years less than two years after this prediction.)

And my personal favorite:

2) “Piracy will be stamped out in less than 10 years.”

(Gerd did get a couple of important things right. To read Leonhard’s full 2002 predictions go here.)

HOW COOL ARE YOU?

As one of my readers, the decade change-over should be a bit significant because it was the year 2000 that www.MosesAvalon.com went live, bringing you in-depth, accurate, balanced, analysis of the music business that had never before been available to the public. Along with it came our advocacy efforts that in the past ten years have helped draft legislation, creating better deals for artists and being instrumental in recovering over $1,000,000 in “Black Box” revenue for US writers, including Sting (who never thanked me) Arrested Development, Hanson, BTO and 100s more.

We’re proud of our work and I’m thankful to have you as a reader. Some of you have been on this list since day one, when Moses Supposes was little more than the rant of an author with a radical book. What a trip it’s been. Here’s a little stroll down memory lane and a fast look at some of the predictions and the highlights of the first nine years of the new millennium.

PREDICTIONS

9/11 Will Chang The Music Biz. 2001 Prediction: “The hard edged thrash tunes that you may have noticed on K-Rock will likely soften radically for a few months and yield to more “thoughtful” music. If you are a writer of serious tunes now is the time to dust off some of those compositions that were a bit too “political” for your pop clients. They have renewed value. You may also want to change the old rusted strings on your acoustic guitar. In the Rap/Hip Hop genre I believe that we will be seeing a radical drop in anti-social themes.”

Reality: One demerit for me. Music on K-Rock stations got harder than ever. Rap got nastier and more misogynistic. Labels discouraged artists from writing political music for fear of pissing off their parent holding company’s sensibilities. MTV pulled several politicized videos if they criticized the Bush administration. And let me just add two words to how wrong this prediction about how politicized music would have a resurgence– Dixie Chicks.

360 Deals and Major Label Policy. 2001 Prediction: “Starting with personnel. A&R departments will be trimmed. Firing on a massive scale is eminent. (You aint seen nothing yet, Motola not withstanding.) Wild card prediction: WEA will be the only American owned distributor in 2006. Promotion departments increased. Companies will look to slash manufacturing costs. This means that Internet deals will take a sharper front seat interest and majors will start to take a bite out of other revenue from their artists, like touring and publishing. Companies with strong Internet pipelines (like AOL/WEA) will likely continue to have more options for revenue streams in the next few years than their competitors.”

Reality: One check for me. Most all of this happened. Motola was fired, along with much of the old regime. Warner is now the only privately held major. UNI, Sony, and BMG are all foreign owned. 360 deals, have become the norm. AOL mismanaged their synergy to the media business and as a result severed its music division. The pipelines were built but they never managed to monetize them. Proof that it wasn’t only labels that didn’t understand how to monetize music on the internet. Internet companies themselves had trouble with this.

Full article from 2001.

Satellite Radio Dominance, XM/Sirius Merger and the Stern Deal. 2004 Prediction: “Consider that it took almost 15 years before cable TV (a very similar business model as Satellite Radio) became thought of as a “utility” in the American home. During that time cable teetered on profitability and they had NO DIRECT COMPETITORS until Dish in the mid-1990s. Sirius has a far bigger uphill battle, facing STRONG competitors like XM Radio, internet broadband radio, iPods, and coming soon, HD Radio. During this decade-long war to gain market share, Sirius will be paying Stern about $100,000,000 a year– regardless of his success. Howard is smiling. Shareholders are not… I hear XM Radio was also negotiating with Stern and if I were a bit paranoid (never) I would guess that XM’s strategy was to do nothing more than drive up the sale price so that Sirius would be stuck with tent-poll talent that they could not financially justify, making them ripe for a buy-out… ”

Reality: I said it six years ago and I’ll say it today. Satellite is cool, but it has not replaced terrestrial radio, it won’t and the merger between XM and Sirius was easily foreseeable by anyone with sense of media history.Stern lost relevance the very second he crossed over to the digital underworld. Read the 2004 article published on Moses Supposes. These theories, now six years old are still valid.

Internet Radio Survival? 2002 Prediction: “The 2003 CARP rates [for internet radio] have not really effected internet radio in any material way. Those who were going out of business for lack of a stable model just used the CARP rates as an excuse to their investors. Those with viable models hung in there and were awarded a special reduced rate for small stations. All seems about fair for the moment. In 2003 this issue will go away completely. Internet stations will become comfortable with paying the set rates. The RIAA/Sound Exchange will not, repeat, will not separate as they have promised thus creating an antitrust issue that will probably go ignored by many.”

Reality: Internet radio did survive despite the “high” rates. All their blither blather about the RIAA driving them out of business was bunk. SX and the RIAA did separate eventually, after much pressure (some of it from me) but still remain joined at the hip both politically and philosophically. Many of their board members are the same and they share attorneys as well. So on paper it seems like I was wrong, but in practice I was not.

Tower Records Closing Is the Beginning Of The End. 2006 Prediction: “Sure, the Tower is gone. But so what? Have you been to Amoeba Records on a Saturday night? Sunset and Vine in Los Angeles. Packed with bargain-hunting hipsters who love music… This bunk about Tower signaling the end is just that. It’s coupled with another rumor that I heard this year that Best Buy is phasing out its CD section. Completely false. The CD as a loss leader is petrified into their business plan well into the middle of the century. In fact, Best Buy just made a deal to stock an unprecedented 80 weeks worth of physical product this month. Don’t tell me they’re going to stop selling CDs.”

Reality: Many disagreed with me. But, the closing of Tower Records was not the death knell that others predicted. CD sales continue to represent the vast majority of recorded music income. Best Buy never phased out their CD department and still considered the CD to the mainstay of attracting business. I spoke to a Best Buy manager this week and asked him if there was less floor space allocated to CD this year compared to other years.  He said, “no.”

Full article from 2006.

Gaming and Ringtones. 2003 Prediction: “Gameing will become the number one new source of revenue for composers, but there will be fights over licensing that rival the ones over TV rights about 20 years ago. Issues about weather companies issuing a downloaded game sample for promotional purposes should be paying for the performance of the music in the sample, will be the star arguments. Game developers will eventually lose in 2004. Meantime cell phones are going to be the number 1 new income producer for song writers this year and next. An estimated $50 million will come from ring-tones in 2003. But this will be quickly defeated when some board college kid comes up with a way to create a ring tone from MP3s with your home computer and just download it into your cell phone. Something I’m not sure the publishing companies have thought about yet.”

Reality: My bad.  Game makers seem to have won the high ground in their music licensing negotiations. It was not the money tree I thought it would be. It’s hard to say who is to blame for this, but I like to blame a general lack of unity in the industry which allowed game developers to play both ends against the middle. Conversely, Ringtone money was far more than $50 million in 2003. Today it’s counted in the Billions per year, even though people can now create their own with free software. It seems consumers will side with the P2P’s and complain about paying $15 for an album and 99 cents for a single but have no issues paying $3.99 for a twenty second clip. Go figure.

HELL-OF-A-RIDE

All-in-all. I think we’re in a great business. While the walls of others come crashing down and the naysayers beat their chest, people seem to still want to pay for music. As long as it’s good.  Correction, as long as they like it.

Keep making great music and we can not fail.

Happy new decade.

Moses Avalon

Don’t just click away. Leave a comment. Join the talk. Make a prediction of your own. Don’t be afraid to be wrong.

MAJOR LABELS AND THE INTERNET: What Really Went Wrong At That Party In 1999?

Tuesday, September 8th, 2009

After 10 Years Can We Finally Get Some Perspective?

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The media induced conception is that labels sat on their laurels during the advent of the Internet in the late 1990s, thus creating their own hell with illegal downloading. This is an easy pitch to buy into, especially if you have tech-related interests. It makes labels seem dial-up dumb and combined with their reputation for not paying their artists, it’s one that has been welcomed by just about everybody.

But is it true? And should we care about the truth or does it take a back seat to “justice?”

“Not true,” says Michael Ostroff, executive vice president of Business and Legal Affairs for the Universal Music Group. Mr. Ostroff serves as UMG’s chief legal officer, worldwide. I interviewed him in 2006 for my third book Million Dollar Mistakes from which much of this article (with updates) is excerpted.

Michael Ostroff: “It is very much a myth that record companies were saying no, no, no to the Internet. [Universal] started looking into the Internet as an opportunity in the late 1990s. One of the opportunities that we thought we would have was like the models they have in the film business. Physical product at one point, then streaming to different sources, and then buying the permanent download. Like video, pay cable, pay per view, and network broadcasts.”

So, what went wrong? If labels really were reaching for this technology and the internet companies reaching for them, why did both sides miss the boat? Now that we’re in year 10 since the start of the internet/label war a look back might reveal, for some– an inconvenient truth.

FIRST BLOOD

Many tech companies approached majors during the late 1990s for catalog licensing, but the one that seems to create the standard for examination is Napster; the David that bagged Goliath. It was the “success” of Napster that paved the way for other P2P based companies like Kazaa and LimeWire, both of which, unlike Napster, are still operating in illegal formats.

The principals of Napster claim they approached majors to get the rights to legally “distribute” catalog on their P2P service as early as January of 1999. Napster’s perception was that labels didn’t pay royalties to artists and, being very pro-artist, Napster wanted to make sure that artists were paid from their downloads (ironically). (See All the Rave: The Rise and Fall of Shawn Fanning’s Napster, by Joseph Menn.)

But record companies faced these three obstacles in regard to licensing to online services in 1999:

– They lacked the rights to grant.

– Their desire to maintain the album-based-economy business model.

– Fear of anti-trust suits for imposing standardization.

While other internet service-based companies seemed willing to engage in what must have been very frustrating negotiations with the majors, the three important factors above were obviously lost on the aggressive and naive Team Napster, whose average executive was barely 25 years old. Some execs had not even finished college. To them it seemed doubtful that these powerful labels, who could make or break careers, were claiming that they couldn’t go boldly and quickly into something that seemed so very obvious. At least to them.

Here’s how the three obstacles broke down:

FIRST: GETTING THE RIGHTS STUFF

A fact glossed over by the media when criticizing record companies was that in 1999, with the exception of certain “digital rights” for Jazz audiophile records, there was barely a single major label recording contract that granted the artists’ specific rights for Internet distribution (as opposed to copies being made via a download.) The now famous broad language that we see in today’s contracts that would cover any new development (“now known or hereafter invented”) was not a given for Heritage artists signed in the 1960 and 1970s.  And even if it were, there was still a loophole labels had to close on this issue just to protect themselves from liability.  This was something labels probably did not tell the tech companies courting them for fear they would be usurped, which in fact, some tried to do. (Napster, to name but one.)

The crux of this problem was that some key artists were not willing to give up Internet rights so easily. They were still feeling the sting from years back when labels asked for the rights to re-release their masters on the Compact Disc (CD) format. This was a right not automatically granted in pre 1980 contracts.

Throughout the 1980s, virtually every artist signed over their CD rights without receiving any up-front money. They were told instead that they would get higher royalties because the CD would sell for about $12, instead of the usual $7.99 in 1979-80. (Artists’ royalties are based on an integer of the unit price.)

But after getting these rights virtually for free, labels applied a “new technology deduction,” to the royalty formula, lowering payments by 25% and thus equaling the same royalty artists already received for LPs, which was already low and for which transparent accounting seemed impossible.

Many artists felt duped.

Now, in the mid 1990s, less than 15 yeas later, the labels wanted “Internet rights”— another right not automatically granted, even in pre1990 contracts. Even though newer artists had no choice, once burned heritage artists with leverage balked. Many wanted an advance. Some were not interested in giving their label more rights under any circumstances now that their contracts were in the twilight stage (you know who you are). And then there were the really “progressive” ones who felt that they might be able to make deals directly with Napster; laughable in retrospect but plausible at the time.

Bottom line, licensing a piecemeal catalog was considered flaccid and worthless to Napster’s business model (indeed to just about every ISP based model), yet for labels to give net-based entities complete catalog download rights in 1999, they would have to renegotiate with their 1000s of artists. That would take years. Napster, gave them about six months.

Tired of all this spit-balling about rights n’ stuff, Napster forged ahead with their launch in June of 1999. Artists with whom they were in direct negotiations soon backed off as they saw their own new releases posted on Napster’s P2P network– sans authorization.

It was war.

SECOND: TRANSITION FROM ALBUMS TO SINGLES

Napster was a singles-driven format, something the industry had evolved away from over the past 20 years.

But, misinformation has led consumers to believe that labels loved the Album format because it allowed them to package filler with the hits and charge more. This was never the case.

Labels want and have always wanted 14 hits songs on every album. Artists can rarely deliver and even if they can the radio/PR format doesn’t allow for too much attention to be placed on one album (with exceptions naturally.)The decision to move from singles to albums was driven by the law of averages, the economics of production, but also at the requests of artists.

Most all industry advances were based on projected album sales. This was something artists’ reps had worked for decades to achieve a standard for. Eight album commitments were perceived as sort of job-security for many artists; with an advance based on the standard financial projections of a 14 song album and a first run of at least between 100,000 and 750,000 units.

Switching over to a singles-driven model that has little to no pressings and just a posting on a website may sound good from a consumer point of view, but this sudden change would have seriously affected the economics of just about every deal in the industry.

Articles and blogs targeting only labels in their accusations of thick-headedness, seem to want to skip over the immutable fact that songwriters and artists didn’t want a “singles driven market” either, because, if album sales are no longer the means by which you quantify success, how are you going to determine the size of an advance? What are you going to figure it against? On-demand singles?

So, why doesn’t Wired and their ilk criticize artists? Because to imply that a songwriter deserves to have his songs “shared” because he’s clinging to a “dying business model,” doesn’t generate the same public sympathy for the tech industry. Instead, it makes them look like thugs. Better target: heartless record companies; a beard to hide the fact that stealing from majors was the same as stealing from the little songwriter too and a great aid in helping to make illegal P2P seem victimless.

Napster didn’t care to learn the economics of the music business, or how artists and songwriters pay their bills and feed their families. They just wanted the product and they wanted it yesterday. In their mind, artists didn’t get paid anyway, so why not forge ahead.

THIRD: DIGITAL TRANSMISSION STANDARDIZATION

Due to antitrust concerns there were limits to the conversations that major labels could have with each other or a tech company regarding a standard for digital transmissions. In other words, if you as a major record company controlling a vast majority of the product, make a deal with one tech company you could be required to make a “most favored nations” deal with all of them. With several companies competing for a “standard,” few media companies in 1999 were ready to do that. But you didn’t read about that in most news stories. The main-stream spin was that labels couldn’t adapt fast enough to keep up with the times,

If the antitrust climate that exists today were applied even less than 100 years ago, when Union Pacific for example, decided that they were going to create a transcontinental railroad with one type of track, every other train company would sue, claiming that they were bullying them into conforming to an inferior standard and not allowing them to compete. We’d have railroads where you would have to change trains every 100 miles or so because train company A’s trains won’t run on train company B’s tracks.

Or, applying the same analogy to telecommunications, a telephone system where you could only call people within a certain territory because the New Jersey telephone company used a different dialing technology or a different type of cable than ones adopted by other phone systems.

iTunes was years away and labels, wanting to create a uniform buying experience and not get pigeon holed with an obsolete standard, asked tech companies for some rational assumptions regarding which algorithm de jour was going to prevail. No one could give assurances in 1999, other than the MP3 format, which at the time was thought sonically inferior by majors and did not include coppy protection, like DRM.

DRM forced too many technical problems for 1999 software developers. So instead of saying, “We can’t figure it out,” they said, “Labels are being unreasonable in their licensing demands.” But another take on this is that Tech companies, by not being able to unify with a protected copy standard, forced labels to sit on their hands.

THE FREE TOY

In 1999 the music business had an already existing industry infrastructure, well established with standards, feeding thousands of employees and artists. The internet “industry” was just starting out, and other than HTML, had few standardizations. In order for copacetic progress to happen, tech companies would need to work within the labels’ existing standards. They claim they tried, but did they really?

Michael Ostroff: “I am not sure the tech companies were ever really reaching toward us. They were interested in building a business on the back of ours without compensating us. [Universal was] trying to develop [Internet] business in a more controlled manner. I think that we didn’t appreciate that all of that would come tumbling down.”

The rest is well documented elsewhere. Massive litigation and rewriting of copyright laws eventually closed down the free version of Napster. But by then labels had drawn blood with tech companies who simply did not understand the music industry’s concerns or didn’t care to. By December of 1999, one month before the new Millennium, a decision was made by the cabal of Silicon Valley companies: music would be the free toy at the bottom of their cereal box. Napster had proven the model.

Their PR machine in full swing, tech companies set about to make record companies the bad guy in an elaborate hearts & minds campaign. They helped finance “advocacy groups” like the EFF, and “solutions” like Creative Commons, to “educate” the public about “fair use” and their “right to share.” They seduced journalists and offered up intellectual puppets like Lawrence Lessig. And while P2P companies were losing the battle legislatively, from the public’s viewpoint they gained significant ground. Just about everyone thinks only bad things about record labels. All record labels. (The average person does not distinguish between majors and indies.)

The music industry missed a chance (if they ever really had one) to partner up with tech-companies. Will this ever change? I think so.

THE CHANGING TIDE

Of late, ISPs have started to see themselves as content delivery service providers, instead of just “dumb pipes.” Instead of “net neutrality” they now want to charge different rates for different types of content. And why not? The 21st Century commodity is not Soy Beans, it’s Bandwidth. But, this requires them to make friends with their former enemies– movie and music providers. The “free toy” has become the new potential client. Time to kiss some ass.

Last year I was a Keynote speaker at the Eurosonic/Nooderslag conference (the SXSW of Europe.) A comment in my speech was met with astonishment when I said to a room of 300 international delegates that because of the changing tide I predicted that within five years you’ll see a high-profile arrest for file-sharing. This seemed absurd to Europeans at the time. The Dutch government had just passed a law that made P2P practically legal. I was wrong. It would not be five years. That arrest was only a few months away in the even-more-progressive country of Sweden.

Since then, the Supreme Court of the US has upheld stiff fines from RIAA lawsuits. Britain is now penalizing file sharers,. ISPs have agreed to work with the RIAA and other special interest groups in assisting them with finding and punishing P2P users. The tide is changing. The storm is clearing. When will the music biz naysayers wake up?!

Even beleaguered Warner Records reported that their Q4 2009 numbers showed only a 2% drop in revenue from last year (adjusted for exchange rates or what is called a “constant currency basis.”) Could this be a sign?

Bottom line for the future of the music biz, to paraphrase Fast Eddie Felson

“We’re back!”

This is not the end.  It’s merely a new beginning.

Moses Avalon

PS: if you like this article you may also enjoy my third book, Million Dollar Mistakes.

(Care to comment? DON’T EMAIL ME. Let us all know what you think. Add your thoughts along with a link to your site or product to boost your web presence and give others a point of reference. Good SEO begins with your comments below.

CIA & Sound Exchange Create Agit-Prop For Fed Regulation

Wednesday, July 15th, 2009

If you’re in the music business, many of you probably got the link in an email and thought it was kinda hip: www.apriceformusic.com. What a great name for a site and the GUI is neat as well.

But behind the colorful web site with hip lingo could lurk a very serious agenda; one that involves a connection between the CIA and the “non-profit” performing rights agency (PRO), Sound Exchange (SX).

APriceforMusic.com seems banal on the surface. It hosts an interactive Chart that shows a relationship between piracy and lost music revenue. Scenarios can be explored based on how you set up its parameters. Switches like “estimated growth” and “deductions” are adjustable. But hidden behind the colorful interface could there be an unseen force persuading us to let the Fed regulate the music space?

The purpose of the Chart is, according to its co-creators, Leron Rogers, partner in the law firm, Hewitt and Rogers and Bryan Calhoun, Vice President, New Media & External Affairs for SX, to act as an “open discussion tool” and stimulate a dialogue for the proposed but controversial ISP blanket music license; sometimes called a “compulsory license” because the ISP would be compelled to either collect it from subscribers (like sales tax) and pay it forward, or pay it out of their revenue directly.

Rogers purports that the Chart’s logic is politically neutral, serving only to calculate raw data. Except that the Chart’s data makes several very biased assumptions, 1) that digital piracy is rampant and 2) the business of music is declining fast because of this. According to aPriceForMusic.com, without an ISP license music biz revenue will be swallowed up by piracy in the next few years (just in time for the Mayan Apocalypse.)

Compulsory licenses are not new to the music business. The nine cents for each record sale that is paid by record companies to songwriters, often called the “Statutory Rate,” is the most famous in the US (established in 1909) and is collected/audited by The Harry Fox Agency. Such a license in the case of ISPs would, just like the Statutory Rate, require legislation as well as some regulation of record companies; a thought that seems outrageous and dangerous to many.

Now, aside from the financial logistics that will be challenging, to say the least, even if a compulsory license for internet use were to be instated; and aside from the fact that artists will probably not see any significant amount of this revenue without an audit– even if it could be collected, the Chart’s assumptions are way off base and suggest an agenda that is anything but an “open discussion.”

CLEVER HAPPY ACCIDENTS: “MUSIC BIZ” v. “RECORD BIZ”

Across the top of the Chart is text reading: “This chart shows the historic and projected revenues of the US music business.” Except that nowhere on the site does it break out revenue from airplay/public performances or synchronization licenses: two of the industry’s core revenue streams.

Despite the fact that ASCAP/BMI took in over $1 Billion last year and have had three record-breaking years in a row for collections, and despite the fact that master placements in movie and TV soundtracks are at a historic high in both uses and fees, the Chart’s creators omitted these statistics when calculating “US music business revenue.”

Mr. Rogers admitted to me that the headline should be something more accurate like, “Revenue from US record sales.” He called it an “oversight” and said he would change it.

But even if he does, in the area of US record sales the Chart still gets a flunk because the Chart’s assumptions are based strictly on RIAA statistics.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOR3Wm5Dn4A[/youtube]

Which means it doesn’t take into consideration indie label sales which account for about 25% of the physical product in the US market place. Nor does the Chart seem to account for Mobile or G3 Network sales, which add millions of singles sold each year. There is also no slider to adjust for migration to or from subscription services, or cross-over of a person using both, and let’s not forget the soon-to-be-flowing revenue from webcaster advertising (roughly 25% of all internet radio profits) estimated to be worth unknown millions over the coming years.

Nope. None of these are in the mix. The Chart’s raison d’être rests entirely on its definition of the “US music business revenue” which it limits to the tortured sales of RIAA distributed CDs and some types of digital sales.

WHY SO DUMB?

Mr. Rogers defended, saying that he and Calhoun created the chart with guidance from “high level music executives and consultants.” They would not tell me who their consultants were because, according to Rogers, the consultants wanted to remain anonymous “as a condition of working on the project.” (If this is the type of junk-work they provided, I can see why.)

But in an email exchange I had with Detica (the corporate espionage company that engineered the Chart’s brain and whose clients include the CIA) they wrote that they based the assumptions not on any consultation with people but only RIAA published statistics and information supplied to them by… Calhoun and Rogers! In essence, Detica is saying, we’re not to blame: Bad data in equals bad data out.

Perhaps Calhoun and Rogers or whoever worked on this thing, don’t believe that revenue from publishing is very significant. Or, perhaps it’s because if you added publishing and mobile revenue to sales of physical product (which last year was over 550 million units in the US) the music business would not look like it’s in such bad shape, and thus the argument for compulsory ISP fees would seem silly. I mean, why hide that you helped create something enlightening, unless there is another reason for this Chart; one that creates an entry point for someone to gain a foothold in the music space.

Could someone new be knocking on our industry’s door but hiding beyond our preview of the peek hole?

WHO THE “F” ARE THESE GUYS?

Without the ability to vet who worked on the program’s logic or how the algorithms “think”, this Chart is nothing more than a propaganda tool, and a rather conniving one at that. It enters the subject from a place where we can all agree– should artists get compensated if their revenue is being attacked? Sure. Artists are cute and cuddly, like a Panda, and shouldn’t we stop the killing of Pandas from the evil cosmetic industry? Or rabbits from the Oil Industry, or the Spotted Owl, or whatever the hell that issue is?

It’s propaganda 101. All great campaigns have an “entry point” that seems universally rational; WMDs sold us the Iraq War and–in the extreme–the most historic of all propaganda campaigns: Hitler’s “economic reform discussions” that were the entry point for the Final Solution. Intention is the key: if we knew who was behind this Chart, it might be more helpful.

So, who’s connected to aPriceForMusic.com? I wish I knew. They have four “partners” listed on their site but aside from SoundExchange, and Detica, the two other partners’ hot links on the site don’t connect to any information pages. Even Rogers’ own law firm–listed as a partner–has no information about them, or their clients.

MUSIC BIZ AND THE FED

Not surprisingly, the site doesn’t discuss the inevitable down-side of a compulsory license: that since US ISPs will not voluntarily opt into this system the Fed will have to make it happen with legislation and… say it with me folks– regulate. Do the secret “high level consultants” who created an “open discussion tool” have a vested interest in letting the Man into our front door? I’d like to know.

Rogers says he’s not for government regulation. “I would hope that ISPs voluntarily opt into a compulsory license system.” (Who said lawyers are cynical?) But, few would agree that this is a reasonable expectation and so, in essence:

The Price For Music is a veiled and covert argument for government oversight of the music biz, which, if it happened, would be a very heavy price for music, indeed!

Some good news: my heated interview with Rogers and Calhoun (sounds like a song-writing team) sparked a reaction. I received this in an email from SX shortly after: “…we already spoke with the guys at Detica and are compiling our lists of [your] comments, suggestions and concerns to update the site. Thanks.”

We’ll see. I doubt this will level the playing field. Detica’s interface doesn’t allow users to change “quality scores” of each parameter, which, along with RIAA’s so-called “Historical data” is the heart of aPriceForMusic.com’s assumptions. Without the ability to adjust quality scores little room is left for any rendering other than that a music business melt-down is in progress and the compulsory license is a good way to return money to our decaying economy; an easy argument to make, when you rely solely on RIAA data and omit several billion in revenue streams.

Reporting from the front and keepin’ it real for over ten years now,

Moses Avalon

For more on aPriceForMusic.com’s retarded assumptions see section six in this PDF.

For more info on the screwed up way the RIAA calculates “sales” watch this 2 minute video or read this article.

Don’t like what I wrote about your company? Tell me. Like most journalists, I enjoy a good argument, and our discussion might make for a nice follow-up story. Twittering that I am a moron is a) news to no one, and b) unlikely to further your cause. –Tip # 116 from proprtips.com.