Moses Avalon

Last week the co-manager of 30 year-old Dutch artist, Alain Clark invited me to his LA recording sessions. Who was there when I arrived: Steve Gadd and Dean Parks. If you don’t know who they are and you’re into music, then you’re probably under thirty-five. They are the cats behind the tracks on albums like Steely Dan’s Aja and about 5 out of 10 of the great studio recordings made from the mid 1970s to the present.

To hear Gadd/Parks work their magic before it’s mixed and layered is pure heaven. At 65 years old, Gadd is still playing perfect and gigging all the time. Ask him if CD sales being down is relevant.

With hundreds of studios in Europe and some of the best musicians, Alain (pronounced A-lan) crossed the pond to work in Los Angeles. Why? He liked the vibe. That’s it. He wanted US cats and a sound that he felt was obtainable via the LA scene.

I was there and I think he got it. His next album will resonate with anyone who has a kink for the Dan, Marvin Gaye, Curtis Mayfield, etc.

And here’s the part that concerns you.

HEARTBREAKING

Alain’s talent is impressive. He produces and arranges his tracks, he’s young, and has the look and personality of a star. In fact he is a star– over there. Over here he still has to wait for a table at Dennys.

I saw Alain perform at the 2009 Eurosonic conference in Holland. (I was the Key Note speaker that year.) He blew me away with a great R&B song called “Father and Friend.” It’s quadruple platinum in the Netherlands but in the US the majors don’t know what to do with him. He had a deal on Warner for US marketing. It went nowhere. Why?

The fact that these label-luddites keep paying him lip service about “loving it” but not moving forward resonates with why I left the creative side of the business. It’s too heartbreaking. Anyone who has the power to do something, listens to this guy’s music and then shrugs at what to do with it, has no juice or has no soul. It’s that simple. And there are just too many people in positions of power that fit this description, unfortunately.

Why have labels decided that people’s tastes in music are somehow different in the US? Why, with the internet and social networking, will the US be deprived of Alain’s work? What has to happen before the “global economy” hits the music business and an artist that is big in Holland can come to the US for a warm welcome?

Anyone..? Anyone..?

This is why CD sales are down. It’s not P2P. It’s not the downfall of radio. It’s that labels can not pick a winner anymore.

It doesn’t matter. Alain’s now on our radar. Someone reading this will hear him, grow a pair and have the singer in every iPod, while majors are still asking themselves why he spells his name wrong.

Take a listen/look to this YouTube video and see if you can guess why Warner failed to figure out a strategy. If you have a clue, respond in the comments section below. I’d like to hear it and so would others on this list.

Mo Out

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by Moses Avalon

What has happened to my career? Ten years ago I was fighting the good fight by watch-dogging major label rip offs. But lately I find myself being a major label apologist because they refuse to stand up for themselves in the press while they (and therefore artists) are ripped off by ISPs. And now, today I am completely through the looking glass by investigating an artist’s potential malfeasance. And one that’s in mourning, no less.

I don’t know if I should be thanking Moses Supposes reader Justin L for bringing this to my attention or not, but is seems MySpace’s “most popular artist” Tila Tequila has decided she will compete with major labels. Starting this month she will be signing, developing and distributing new artists.

Stop laughing.

Tila has a plan and she’s sticking to it. She also has a few advantages over the Big Four. While majors offer guaranteed advances, infrastructure, experience, marketing leverage and legitimacy (for some) Tila Tequila is going to bypass all that dumb stuff and just get down to the music. She claims the following advantages:

1) “If you’re a new artist signed at a Major Record Label, trust that your album will never come out… I can guarantee your record will be put out, that you will be making money, and start seeing all the checks come in pretty quickly.”

2) “Major record labels would have to spend millions on [promotion] But… since I am already a known public figure, I can easily promote you and immediately.”

3) “20,000 downloads, to a major record label, that’s a huge flop… With me, if you sell 20,000 downloads, that’s 20,000 dollars in your pocket immediately.”

(So she’s going to get iTunes to waive their 30% vig somehow?)

4) “I have been in this business for so long, that I pretty much have all the resources you need.”

(I think she’s was signed in 2005, but actually that might be a long time for someone pushing 30.)

5) “I’m not some old fart who thinks he knows what ‘music’ is these days….Hell no! I am a young, hot, sexy biatch who is relentless and passionate in what she does!”

(Okay, She might have a good point here.)

6) “I am constantly getting booked for my tour/appearances, I can easily add you to my tour as opening acts.”

(Forget the Talent Agencies Act. She don’t need no stinkin’ badges.)

And finally…

7) “The word ‘fail’ does not exist in my vocabulary!”

Neither do words like conflict of interest, fraud in the inducement, false advertising, unfair practices and other common business terms.

Tila is not just whistling Dixie. She claims to have two artists in her stable already to which she has made a number of guarantees via her site.

Unfortunately, many of her promises are incompatible with each other under California Labor law. Others are likely to get the attention of an Attorney General or the Federal Trade Commission if complaints are filed. Specifically, if you sign with her she will, “Instantly, literally give you overnight fame… you will become a major superstar faster than you can say ‘superstar,’” and the clincher, “free first class trips all over the world, [where] you will get paid to perform too!”

But here’s the best part, “On top of the record deal, I will give you the option to also let me be your manager!”

Her..? As a manager..? “On top?” Now I’m excited.

All kidding aside, the most newsworthy part is that her bullet points are very on message and will resonate a great deal with emerging artists desperate for a break and too unsophisticated to understand why her pitch is probably a recipe for disaster. Who in their right mind would let their label also be their manager? The answer: a great many people.

What does a Tila Tequila Records contract look like? Who knows? If I ever see one I’ll let you know if it reads the same as the standard major label tome that is now surpassing 150 pages on average. (Up from 40 pages in 1977 and 90 pages in 2001)

Frankly, I don’t see how it can be very different. The rights an artist needs to grant so that a label can allocate the resources to achieve fame are invasive, to say the least. Unless Tila is just doing this as a publicity stunt, she will have to acquire these same exclusive rights. When she does and then realizes that she can never “guarantee” paid gigs, or stardom, she becomes just like the labels she is calling “the devil,” on her website; worse in my view, because majors promise nothing except a shot and they appeal to those with experienced representation. Something tells me Tila isn’t going to tolerate too much negotiating from lawyers on her offer of guaranteed fame.

However, in my heart, I hope that she (and her people) have found a new angle. This is one time I’d like to take my cynical, New York attitude and send it on hiatus. I wish her success in our changing industry. Tila, was once just a hottie with a dream. Now she’s selling the hot dream herself. I suppose that this could be called progress. Lord knows she will not be the first “artist” to try it.

Welcome to my side of the street, Tila. Bout time. I needed a “sexy biatch” to watch dog.

If you’re interested you can send inquires to TilaTequilaRecords@gmail.com

Mo out

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“We have a serious problem with the industry… the CD business could be destroyed entirely in three years by the availability of free music on the Internet.” –Miles Copeland in a 2001 Interview.

In 2000 it seemed like the music business was about to end. Spin magazine was shutting its doors, MTV began its ten-year retreat into irrelevance by closing The Box, labels were losing massive market share to home video games and artists were making pennies on the dollar of what they were supposed to be making. And then, in 2001 the Napster war exploded.

But even though there are many who like to purport that the music business is still in a downward spiral (mostly those who favor tech companies) these claims defy all logic. ASCAP/BMI have reported record earnings for the past three years and music sales in general are up. This, in spite of music “futurist,” Gerd Leonhard who said in 2002, “The performing rights organizations as we know them, will vanish.”

Really?

CD sales are sliding and are destined to become the new vinyl, as a vinyl resurgence makes the old 12″ the new LaserDisc. This is in contrast to the “futurists’” who in 2002 stated emphatically that the pricing scheme of music-buying will be shelved before 2007 and that “CD prices will end up at around $5 USD per unit.”

Really?

Last I checked we still managed to sell more than 300 million of those silver roof-shingles in 2009 for about the same price they were in 2000. Most were also bought them the same way we’ve been buying music for fifty years— in record stores.

All RIAA data seems to suggest that physical music sales are down 30%– if you start counting in 2005. But if we wind the clock back ten years, instead of five, CD Albums look bleak but overall music sales are pretty much where they were a decade ago despite how tech-biased web-zines like to skew the numbers,  This might sound like bad news if you worship the concept of “expansion,” until you remember that industries, like finance, automobile manufacturing, the stock market and other US staples have seen a sharp decline since 2000, due largely to the fall of the past two years.

By comparison, the music biz is holding its own and all this while dealing with rampant piracy, rapidly evolving technology that is too fast to legislate, no government bail-out, and technocrats who hurt the music business with dumb statements like, “Mechanical royalties as we know them [in 2002] will cease to exist within 15 years.” (Yes, he really said that.) And these two gems which could not have turned out to be less true when predicted by “futurists” in 2002 yet were hailed as “forward thinking” by organizations like the EFF, The Future of Music Coalition, and some very pessimistic music business professors:

1) “The lifetime of copyright will be cut back to 15-25 years, to reflect the fast pace of innovation and cultural development.”

(Copyright was extended to 95 years less than two years after this prediction.)

And my personal favorite:

2) “Piracy will be stamped out in less than 10 years.”

(Gerd did get a couple of important things right. To read Leonhard’s full 2002 predictions go here.)

HOW COOL ARE YOU?

As one of my readers, the decade change-over should be a bit significant because it was the year 2000 that www.MosesAvalon.com went live, bringing you in-depth, accurate, balanced, analysis of the music business that had never before been available to the public. Along with it came our advocacy efforts that in the past ten years have helped draft legislation, creating better deals for artists and being instrumental in recovering over $1,000,000 in “Black Box” revenue for US writers, including Sting (who never thanked me) Arrested Development, Hanson, BTO and 100s more.

We’re proud of our work and I’m thankful to have you as a reader. Some of you have been on this list since day one, when Moses Supposes was little more than the rant of an author with a radical book. What a trip it’s been. Here’s a little stroll down memory lane and a fast look at some of the predictions and the highlights of the first nine years of the new millennium.

PREDICTIONS

9/11 Will Chang The Music Biz. 2001 Prediction: “The hard edged thrash tunes that you may have noticed on K-Rock will likely soften radically for a few months and yield to more “thoughtful” music. If you are a writer of serious tunes now is the time to dust off some of those compositions that were a bit too “political” for your pop clients. They have renewed value. You may also want to change the old rusted strings on your acoustic guitar. In the Rap/Hip Hop genre I believe that we will be seeing a radical drop in anti-social themes.”

Reality: One demerit for me. Music on K-Rock stations got harder than ever. Rap got nastier and more misogynistic. Labels discouraged artists from writing political music for fear of pissing off their parent holding company’s sensibilities. MTV pulled several politicized videos if they criticized the Bush administration. And let me just add two words to how wrong this prediction about how politicized music would have a resurgence– Dixie Chicks.

360 Deals and Major Label Policy. 2001 Prediction: “Starting with personnel. A&R departments will be trimmed. Firing on a massive scale is eminent. (You aint seen nothing yet, Motola not withstanding.) Wild card prediction: WEA will be the only American owned distributor in 2006. Promotion departments increased. Companies will look to slash manufacturing costs. This means that Internet deals will take a sharper front seat interest and majors will start to take a bite out of other revenue from their artists, like touring and publishing. Companies with strong Internet pipelines (like AOL/WEA) will likely continue to have more options for revenue streams in the next few years than their competitors.”

Reality: One check for me. Most all of this happened. Motola was fired, along with much of the old regime. Warner is now the only privately held major. UNI, Sony, and BMG are all foreign owned. 360 deals, have become the norm. AOL mismanaged their synergy to the media business and as a result severed its music division. The pipelines were built but they never managed to monetize them. Proof that it wasn’t only labels that didn’t understand how to monetize music on the internet. Internet companies themselves had trouble with this.

Full article from 2001.

Satellite Radio Dominance, XM/Sirius Merger and the Stern Deal. 2004 Prediction: “Consider that it took almost 15 years before cable TV (a very similar business model as Satellite Radio) became thought of as a “utility” in the American home. During that time cable teetered on profitability and they had NO DIRECT COMPETITORS until Dish in the mid-1990s. Sirius has a far bigger uphill battle, facing STRONG competitors like XM Radio, internet broadband radio, iPods, and coming soon, HD Radio. During this decade-long war to gain market share, Sirius will be paying Stern about $100,000,000 a year– regardless of his success. Howard is smiling. Shareholders are not… I hear XM Radio was also negotiating with Stern and if I were a bit paranoid (never) I would guess that XM’s strategy was to do nothing more than drive up the sale price so that Sirius would be stuck with tent-poll talent that they could not financially justify, making them ripe for a buy-out… ”

Reality: I said it six years ago and I’ll say it today. Satellite is cool, but it has not replaced terrestrial radio, it won’t and the merger between XM and Sirius was easily foreseeable by anyone with sense of media history.Stern lost relevance the very second he crossed over to the digital underworld. Read the 2004 article published on Moses Supposes. These theories, now six years old are still valid.

Internet Radio Survival? 2002 Prediction: “The 2003 CARP rates [for internet radio] have not really effected internet radio in any material way. Those who were going out of business for lack of a stable model just used the CARP rates as an excuse to their investors. Those with viable models hung in there and were awarded a special reduced rate for small stations. All seems about fair for the moment. In 2003 this issue will go away completely. Internet stations will become comfortable with paying the set rates. The RIAA/Sound Exchange will not, repeat, will not separate as they have promised thus creating an antitrust issue that will probably go ignored by many.”

Reality: Internet radio did survive despite the “high” rates. All their blither blather about the RIAA driving them out of business was bunk. SX and the RIAA did separate eventually, after much pressure (some of it from me) but still remain joined at the hip both politically and philosophically. Many of their board members are the same and they share attorneys as well. So on paper it seems like I was wrong, but in practice I was not.

Tower Records Closing Is the Beginning Of The End. 2006 Prediction: “Sure, the Tower is gone. But so what? Have you been to Amoeba Records on a Saturday night? Sunset and Vine in Los Angeles. Packed with bargain-hunting hipsters who love music… This bunk about Tower signaling the end is just that. It’s coupled with another rumor that I heard this year that Best Buy is phasing out its CD section. Completely false. The CD as a loss leader is petrified into their business plan well into the middle of the century. In fact, Best Buy just made a deal to stock an unprecedented 80 weeks worth of physical product this month. Don’t tell me they’re going to stop selling CDs.”

Reality: Many disagreed with me. But, the closing of Tower Records was not the death knell that others predicted. CD sales continue to represent the vast majority of recorded music income. Best Buy never phased out their CD department and still considered the CD to the mainstay of attracting business. I spoke to a Best Buy manager this week and asked him if there was less floor space allocated to CD this year compared to other years.  He said, “no.”

Full article from 2006.

Gaming and Ringtones. 2003 Prediction: “Gameing will become the number one new source of revenue for composers, but there will be fights over licensing that rival the ones over TV rights about 20 years ago. Issues about weather companies issuing a downloaded game sample for promotional purposes should be paying for the performance of the music in the sample, will be the star arguments. Game developers will eventually lose in 2004. Meantime cell phones are going to be the number 1 new income producer for song writers this year and next. An estimated $50 million will come from ring-tones in 2003. But this will be quickly defeated when some board college kid comes up with a way to create a ring tone from MP3s with your home computer and just download it into your cell phone. Something I’m not sure the publishing companies have thought about yet.”

Reality: My bad.  Game makers seem to have won the high ground in their music licensing negotiations. It was not the money tree I thought it would be. It’s hard to say who is to blame for this, but I like to blame a general lack of unity in the industry which allowed game developers to play both ends against the middle. Conversely, Ringtone money was far more than $50 million in 2003. Today it’s counted in the Billions per year, even though people can now create their own with free software. It seems consumers will side with the P2P’s and complain about paying $15 for an album and 99 cents for a single but have no issues paying $3.99 for a twenty second clip. Go figure.

HELL-OF-A-RIDE

All-in-all. I think we’re in a great business. While the walls of others come crashing down and the naysayers beat their chest, people seem to still want to pay for music. As long as it’s good.  Correction, as long as they like it.

Keep making great music and we can not fail.

Happy new decade.

Moses Avalon

Don’t just click away. Leave a comment. Join the talk. Make a prediction of your own. Don’t be afraid to be wrong.

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